Prediction for 2008
October 19th, 2006

I think there’s a good chance that Democratic Senator Barack Obama (Illinois) will get the Democratic Party nomination for Vice President in 2008. In fact, I would advocate it.

Rationale:

  1. He won’t run for president, so he won’t get bloodied in the primary.
  2. He’s one of the most well-spoken and charismatic politicians in the Democratic Party.
  3. He inspires passion and will get out the base.
  4. His presence on the Democratic ticket will help get out the vote in the African American community.
  5. His father is an immigrant, which plays into one classic version of the American Story (in another version of the American Story, the candidate grew up in a tiny, dirt poor town. See, e.g., Bill Clinton’s famous “ I still believe in a place called Hope” speech).
  6. His sense of humor, charisma, wit and demeanor make it hard to “go negative” in a campaign against him.
  7. Obama for President in 2016.

UPDATE (10/23/2006): Maybe I was wrong about Obama not running for president. My theory was that he’s too new in national politics and too golden right now to risk everything with an early run for president. This cartoon captures my thoughts on the that:

tomtoles061024.gif

Apparently, he’s considering it. We could very well see him at the top of the ticket in 2008.

Posted in Politics, Predictions by Adam
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Joel
October 19th, 2006

I don’t think Obama’s chances of being on the ticket this time around are good, unless Ford is elected to the Senate in Tennessee. It will persuade Democratic insiders that an African American on the ticket would not hurt them too badly in the South. Sad to say, but I think it’s a factor.

Adam
October 19th, 2006

I don’t think having Obama on the ticket would cost any votes from white people. However, I think you’re right that there are “Democratic insiders” who are afraid that this would happen. These are the same genius insiders who have brought us defeat after defeat after defeat and who, until recently, were convinced that running against the Iraq War Disaster would hurt Democrats.

Joel
October 19th, 2006

Yes, that’s why I think these idiot insiders would need to see Ford win. Their worst flaw (among many) is their utter lack of imagination.

Michael Duff
October 19th, 2006

I would like to believe that having Obama on the ticket would not cost white votes, but I don’t believe it. But whether it would cost white votes or not, Mr. Obama is going to become a much more formidable presence in national politics than he already is - and that is saying something. The simple truth is that he is a formidable man. I don’t agree with everything I’ve heard him say, and I’m not convinced he is not the type of DLC centrist that I despise. But, for now, he comes closer on more of my core beliefs than any other national politician I can think of, with the possible exception of Russ Feingold. For that reason alone, I would like to see him run at the top of the ticket at least a couple of times in the next decade. But as a person of color I have to be brutally honest - I am very frightened of the potential repercussions of his candidacy.

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